Besides, the phase-out of hard coal and lignite for power production is set to , and fossil gas and oil for power production to The heating sector and the transport sector continue to use fossil fuels. However, in terms of decarbonization, it is hoped for a spillover effect E.
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Hence, the decarbonization in this sector is advancing, even without changing technology mix. Last accessed: 25 May World market prices for fossil fuels hard coal, oil, and fossil gas are influenced by two opposing trends: Due to increasing worldwide demand, decreasing availability, and political instability outside the EU, prices for fossil fuels increase. However, a decrease in demand in the EU and the effect of governmentally set phase-outs reduces the price increases slightly see Table A2.
Characterized by a reduction of international tensions, increased communication between stakeholders, and a holistic approach, the GD scenario visualizes the effects of fast action towards a sustainable energy system. Derived from those developments, Germany carries out its nuclear phase-out until In comparison to the EI scenario, fossil fuels phase-out are earlier due to prior interventions and increasingly cost-effective renewable energies. The phase-out of fossil fuels for power generation is set in for lignite, in for hard coal, and in for fossil gas and oil.
The growing efforts for climate protection, and therefore, a related decrease in demand for fossil fuels leads to a slightly falling price for conventional energy sources likewise to EI. This increase is due to the strong focus on climate action, which includes that all sectors are covered with emission prices. Especially in previously excluded sectors, effects will become noticeable, such as the transportation sector. Due to increasing urbanization and population, metropolitan areas will drastically change, which makes a holistic planning process for sustainable energy supply and infrastructure necessary.
In the SOTF scenario, the world is presented as one that has regressed from current climate policies to go back towards a more protectionist and nationalist environment. The scenario does not represent a world that is in complete refusal of climate problems, but rather one that prioritizes other issues, like national conflicts, conservative movements, and breakdowns of partnerships, until the effects of abrupt climate change are immediate and drastic. Until , the main driver is the need for energy security and independence, while the NDCs are mostly ignored. Interruptions in global trade as a result of protectionism lead to high prices for fossil fuels as well as imported technologies.
Governments may choose to use renewables to gain energy independence but have no preference over conventional energy carriers. In Germany, this scenario is marked by increasingly high prices for gas and other fossil fuel imports see Table A2 , as well as a slower rate of technological innovation. From on, when the negative effects of climate change are even more visible, the focus starts to shift towards climate policy to mitigate further damages. Renewables are supported, leading to falling prices, however, no phase-outs for fossil fuels are set.
This can be traced back to a growing focus on more acute global conflicts. Hence, the development of the energy system and eventual fossil fuel phase-outs are fully market-driven, given the cost assumptions. In the following chapter, the model results of the scenarios are discussed. In doing so, respective figures specifying the power, heat, and transport sector are presented and elaborated on.
The graphs are resolved in five-year time steps and show the trend of the investigated sector in the period from to , in accordance with the model calculations. The decrease in final energy demand is due to decreasing demands in the different sectors: better insulation of the housing structure see Figure 6 , market penetration of electric vehicles, more efficient electric applications and a slow reshaping of the industry landscape see Figure 7 have a significant impact on the amount of energy needed.
On the other hand the electrification of different sectors plays a key role, which is reflected in increasing electricity production see Figure 3. The paths displayed have significant points and trends for the various scenarios that represent the cornerstones of the transformation of the energy system. All scenarios are affected by the phase-out of nuclear power production set for each scenario. However, the gradual trend towards the decommissioning of coal-fired and fossil-fired energy generation and its use in different sectors is reflected in individual phase-out dates for the scenarios.
Common in all scenarios is the nearly constant use of biomass and hydropower until , as its potential is almost at its maximum at the beginning of the model period. A more detailed overview of the sector transformations is presented in the following model results. Also, in this scenario, there are hardly any policy-driven restrictions such as phase-outs, so that model decisions, in this case, are primarily price-driven.
The primary purpose of hard coal in the energy system of is to provide industrial high-temperature heat.
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Even though there is no phase-out date set for hard coal, it does no longer play a role in the electricity sector from on see Figure 3. Compared to the other scenarios, renewable technologies are the last and least to expand in this scenario. Lignite is being phased-out in From , hard coal no longer plays a role in the electricity sector, but is then only used for the medium- and high-temperature industrial heat generation, with decreasing volumes. However, it is still used for transportation to a limited extent in Accordingly, the consumption of fossil gas in the industrial sector is steadily decreasing, but is being replaced to a low extent by synthetic gas.
On the renewable technology side, the expansion of wind power generation is the most important. Solar energy generation is used for power generation through open field PV and rooftop PV systems. Furthermore, solar thermal systems are applied in residential low-temperature heat generation. The reduction rates of conventional technologies, over the entire model period, are only slightly lower than in the reference scenario EI.
However, due to strict guidelines regarding the reduction path, these reductions are achieved earlier, which goes hand in hand with the expansion of renewable technologies.
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As early as , lignite is completely substituted by renewable sources and coal technologies are no longer used for power production see Figure 3. By , hard coal, which previously played an important role in high-temperature industrial heating, is phased out in this sector. Further, it loses its role in the area of low-temperature heat generation in and from then on is only used in the transport sector.
Concerning gas, it is noticeable that the utilization of fossil gas in the individual sectors is strongly declining while small quantities are substituted by the use of synthetic gas. On the contrary, the technologies of wind power and solar energy have significantly higher growth rates. In all three scenarios, the energy system of Germany experiences a strong coupling of the power sector with the heat and transportation sector. This can be observed in the increasing generation of power see Figure 3. Among the scenarios, there are some variations in the power sector which are depicted more detailed in the following paragraphs.
Again, biomass and hydropower contribute to the system in all scenarios but stay rather constant in generation due to almost exhausted hydro potentials in Germany and no added capacity for biomass in the power sector. When looking at electricity exports and imports of the federal states, it is noticeable that not only the electricity transported across federal state borders increases per year but also the inter-temporal fluctuations of the values between individual time slices.
The model has two options available for absorbing strong volatilities in electricity production with high shares of variable renewable energy sources and for keeping the electricity grid stable even in dark lull periods. On the one hand, the model is allowed to expand the power grid to a certain percentage. The second option is the use of intermediate storage facilities. Since the potential of pumped storage power plants in Germany is low and completely exhausted early on, lithium-ion battery storage systems are being introduced into the power grid.
Depending on the scenario, large quantities of electricity will be temporarily stored in In GD this is Power-to-Gas technologies are another measure, as discussed in more detail in Section 3. The generation from hard coal and lignite stays rather constant in the first ten years.
The total electricity demand of SOTF is the highest among the three scenarios, due to fewer incentives to save energy, mainly in the heating sector, but also in general. Overall, the generation by conventional sources declines. Lignite stays the prevalent conventional source, due to the comparably lower costs to hard coal, and fossil gas. In hard coal is phased out due to rising global prices for coal.
The renewable sources wind and PV replace this conventional power generation. From onwards, the total power generation increases by around 10 TWh each year, due to the increasing sector coupling, resulting in a generation of TWh in In for Germany the generation from wind turbines is twice as high as the generation from PV. Therefore, additional capacities of 85 GW are installed.
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In hard coal is phased out without resulting in a temporary increase of fossil gas. Instead, the more volatile electricity generation from wind turbines and PV is balanced via power trade, hydropower, and battery storage. Electricity production via wind turbines contributes two thirds to the generation, PV a quarter. Synthetic gas is mainly used in the industry heavy region of North Rhine-Westphalia.
After , only onshore wind turbines and PV utilities are built, increasing the power production by additional TWh. The expansion of renewable energy sources adds up to GW onshore wind, 39 GW offshore wind, and 99 GW capacity connected to the grid in In the same time, the demand for electricity in the heat and transport sector increases by TWh.
In general, since low-carbon electricity generation technologies are available at low costs, the electricity sector is the first to be decarbonized. Figure 4 shows the regional breakdown of the power production for , , and It can be seen, that, over the years, each federal state will have increased power production. However, the change in the coastal states might be the biggest: Yielding the potential from offshore windpower, Lower Saxony, Schleswig Holstein, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will become net exporters of energy.
Especially the exchange of power between Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia is very important, as North Rhine-Westphalia is depending on large amounts of electricity produced by wind turbines from the north. Furthermore, in , North Rhine-Westphalia will be one of the last states with significant shares of conventionally produced power. Another state with conventional generation is the city-state of Bremen, which is close to the global coal markets with its harbor. Furthermore, states like Hesse, Thuringia, and Saxony-Anhalt, which have low production rates in will increase their production by the factor three or higher.
This change in production rates is a consequence of the different technologies used for electricity generation. In with a high share of fossil generation, the power plants are located near demand centers or mining areas.
Contrary, in , with mainly electricity generation from wind and PV, the place of the generation is determined by renewable potentials and available space. Consequently, city states like Berlin or Hamburg, Hamburg or Bremen will be more dependent on importing electricity from neighboring states, as they will shut down own production capacities The elected local government of Bremen note in their coalition agreement of July to phase out of coal already in This would affect three powerplants in Bremen [ 76 ].
These developments go along with an increase in electricity transmission and storage. With increasing decarbonization of the sectors of heat and transportation, they also demand more electricity. As Figure 5 demonstrates, in , the power demand from sector-coupling is well below TWh per year, consisting mainly of demand in the industry sector.
Over the next 15 years, the power use in sector coupling increases due to the electrification of space heating in the residential area and to a smaller extent by the market penetration of Battery Electric Vehicles BEVs and an increase of electric trains. By , SOTF has the highest amount of electricity used in other sectors, due to less energy efficient buildings and overall energy savings.